H-1B lottery odds

DHS finalized a wage-weighted selection rule (published Dec 2025, effective Feb 27 2026). It first applies to the FY2027 cap — registration runs in March 2026. Instead of one entry per person, each registration gets entries equal to its OEWS wage level:

Level I = 1 entry · II = 2 · III = 3 · IV = 4.

So a Level IV registration is four times more likely to be drawn than a Level I. The 85,000 cap (65k regular + 20k advanced-degree) and the two-pass selection are unchanged; advanced-degree holders still get a second draw.

Your wage level is the OEWS tier your offered salary meets for your specific job (SOC code) and work location — not a flat salary band. The same salary can be Level I in an expensive metro and Level III elsewhere. Roughly: I ≈ entry, II ≈ qualified, III ≈ experienced, IV ≈ senior/expert. If a registration lists multiple worksites at different levels, the lowest applies. Your LCA lists the prevailing-wage level for your role and area.

This uses DHS's own formula:

odds ≈ (visas selected ÷ total weighted entries) × your level's weight,

where total weighted entries = Σ (registrations at each level × that level's weight). With DHS's projected applicant mix that yields about 15% (I), 31% (II), 46% (III), 61% (IV) — matching DHS's official projection. Because selection is without replacement, this linear formula is a close first-order estimate; DHS used Monte Carlo simulation for exact figures.

• This is an estimate, not a guarantee.
• The rule is finalized but legally contestable — challenges (arguing the law requires a random draw) could delay it or revert to the old lottery.
• Odds depend heavily on the applicant pool's wage mix, which won't be known until after March 2026; we default to DHS's projection.
• Advanced-degree (US master's+) holders get a second selection pass — not added above, so their real odds are a bit higher.
• "Wage level" is role- and location-specific; pick the level that matches your LCA.